Will MODI create magic again for BJP?
Ramanathan Krishnan, INN/Chennai, @infodeaofficial
A lot has been spoken and written about the chances of BJP-lead alliance winning back to power at the centre. However, despite claims and counter claims by political pundits and opinion polls by some self-declared experts and prominent television channels, it is pretty much clear that there will be no cake-walk for Modi-lead combination this time.
As in the past (2014), there are several positives the BJP can count on such as weak opposition in several states including Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, scam-tainted opposition leaders, pre-poll incidents such as surgical airstrikes on terror camps in Pakistan, getting back Pak-held Indian pilot Abhinandan, prospect of bringing back Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi and chest beating on Mission Shakti.
All these will get some votes for the ruling combine for sure. But opposition parties headed by Congress chief Rahul Gandhi are, in every meeting, keep reminding people on Demonetization and its negative impacts on common man, pathetic conditions of farmers across India, dwindling GDP and jobs, price rise of petrol and essential items, introduction of GST and its impact on small and medium enterprises, and the last but not the least, the alleged scandal in
Rafale aircraft deal.
All these will go against Modi government and take away substantial votes in favour of opposition in respective states. In Uttar Pradesh for example, the BJP is more worried to win back as many numbers of seats (71) it had won last time from the total 80 seats. But the political combination is different now.
With traditional rivals BSP and SP joining hands, Prianka getting down with full attire to attack Modi government, several powerful BJP rivals and former leaders joining hands with opposition, waning of Ram Temple promise, and CM Yogi’s over confidence of winning and doing nothing substantial to appease the majority and minority communities, it is going to be a rough ride for BJP there.
Similar sentiments can be expected for the party in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu as well. Except where it had alliance and strong hold such as Gujarat, Telangana, Orissa, Madya Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the party may forfeit the major chunk of seats it had won last time to opposition this election.
But will MODI win back to power?
As mentioned earlier, there are some green patches BJP can count on. As in 2014, the opposition parties still remain divided and their rope of unity is not strong in several states. Though they had conducted unity rallies in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Andhra, conflicting statements kept emanating from different leaders suggesting the fact that even if the opposition manage to stitch a
winning majority, the underlining bitter power struggle may pull down the government. So, given the present scenario, the chance of MODI winning back to power looks eminent albeit with reduced numbers. May be they will just scrap through with 260-270 seats and form the government with the support of some splinter groups and independent MPs.
